AAE450 Spring 2009 Reliability Calculation VariableDescription PlvProbability of launch vehicle success SNumber of successful launches LTotal number of launches TNumber of successful launches of stage (heritage) nNumber of stages (must be > 1), this is included to mitigate multiple stages causing very low success rate Launch Vehicle > 20 launches < 20 launches w/ heritage VariableDescription PtlProbability of translunar success CNumber of insurance claims on SB LTotal number of launches of SB F1yPercent of SB failures within one year SfProbability of individual system failure TMFProbability of individual system failure causing total mission failure Translunar Based on GEO Satellite Buses (SB) (optimistic) VariableDescription PllProbability of lunar descent / locomotion success SNumber of Mars lander or rover mission successes from 1996 onwards TTotal number of Mars lander or rover missions from 1996 onwards Lunar Descent / Locomotion (estimated) [Solomon Westerman] [PM] 3
{}