Bayesian statistics – Medical example
{"Image DocumentName": "Bayesian statistics \u2013 Medical example", "Image ImageDescription": "Medical example: P(disease) = Prior belief (your input theory) E.g. based on population average. Consider test for disease, result is either + or \u2013 P(+|+) = 0.98 \u2013 Prob that test will correctly ID disease. P(-|+) = 0.02 \u2013 Prob that test will give false negative. P(+|-) = 0.03 \u2013 Prob that test will give false positive. P(-|-) = 0.97 \u2013 Prob that test will correctly ID absence of disease. Suppose you test positive \u2013 should you be worried? Posterior belief is 0.032, larger than initial belief but still not very large! Wouter Verkerke, UCSB.", "Image XResolution": "37", "Image YResolution": "37", "Image ResolutionUnit": "Pixels/Centimeter", "Image Software": "SlidePlayer", "Image YCbCrPositioning": "Centered"}