The Setting Dimensions Frequency Exposure Experience Severity Focus: High impact low probability events (HILPEs) HILPEs difficult to understand and frequently ignored History proves HILPEs do happen and can threaten survival of the unprepared Issues Statistical: insufficient data Behavioral: infrequency clouds perception Risk estimates anchored Disaster myopia Social: reduced from regulations collapse once behavior changes Goodharts Law Risk Adaptation ( Performance – is it luck…) (… or skill) 12
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