Varieties of Weather Predictions And Their Risk (Accuracy) Short-Range Weather Forecasts (0 - 10 Days) –Highest level of accuracy (lowest risk) … Typical Accuracy > 85% –Deterministic forecasts based upon physical models of the atmosphere 30-Day Forecast Maps –Accuracy varies by season and locale with greatest accuracy along coastal regions … Typical Accuracy > 75% –Combination of deterministic and statistical models of the atmosphere Climate (Seasonal) Outlooks –Compilations of recent historical data, climate statistics and forecast verifications … Typical Accuracy > 60% –Statistical models comparing past patterns with global weather circulation projections
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