Apply index methodology to monthly tornado counts Index = exp(constants x environmental parameters) Poisson regression Parameters = CAPE, CIN, lifted index, lapse rate, mixing ratio, SRH, vertical shear, precipitation, convective precipitation and elevation Estimate constants from observed climatology – Same index at all (U.S.) locations, all months of year – NARR data 1x1 degree grid – SPC Tornado, Hail, and Wind Database.
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