"A global carbon law and roadmap to make Paris goals a reality (Top) A deep decarbonization scenario scientifically consistent with the Paris Agreement (3) and its associated carbon fluxes as computed with a simple carbon cycle and climate model (13). The ""carbon law"" scenario of halving emissions every decade is marginally more ambitious than the scenario presented. Meeting the Paris Agreement goals will require bending the global curve of CO2 emissions by 2020 and reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. It furthermore depends on rising anthropogenic carbon sinks, from bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) engineering (yellow) and land use (orange), as well as sustained natural sinks, to stabilize global temperatures. This scenario is broadly consistent with a 75% probability of limiting warming to below 2°C; a median temperature increase of 1.5°C by 2100; estimated peak median temperature increase of 1.7°C; a 50% probability of limiting warming to below 1.5°C by 2100; and CO2 concentrations of 380 ppm in 2100. See supplementary materials (SM). (Bottom left) Nonlinear renewable energy expansion trajectories based on 2005–2015 global trends (13). Keeping the historical doubling times of around 5.5 years constant in the next three decades would yield full decarbonization (blue area) in the entire energy sector by ∼2040, with coal use ending around 2030–2035 and oil use, 2040–2045. Calculations, based on (5), are detailed in SM. (Bottom right) Decadal staircase following a global carbon law of halving emissions every decade, a complementary fall in land-use emissions, plus ramping up CO2 removal technologies. GRAPHIC: N. CARY/SCIENCE"
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