"FILE - In this undated portrait, Swedish chemist and industrialist Alfred Nobel (1833-1896) is shown.  Guessing the Nobel Prize winners is a bit like forecasting the stock market: the sages don't seem to do it any better than the layman. So when you hear scholars and pundits predicting the Higgs boson particle will be the theme of the physics prize next week, or that an American writer, finally, is due for the literature award, it's good to keep their track record in mind. ""My top candidate has never won, and it's the fourth year I've been doing it,"" admits Norwegian peace researcher Kristian Harpviken, one of the most frequently cited commentators on the Nobel Peace Prize. (AP Photo)"
{}