93 l best predictors of currency crises are degree of overvaluation of the real exchange rate, adverse movements in exports, an increasing ratio of broad money over official reserves, falling stock prices, and output; l best predictors of banking crises are real exchange rate, the broad money multiplier, the stock market, output, and real interest rates; l earliest signals provided by the best predictors are between 17 months and a year before a currency crisis occurs, and between 18 months and as late as 6 months prior to banking crisis;
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