ECMWF User Meeting / 23 Probabilistic FCs: Brier Skill w.r.t to FC lead time 987_Kalbåda Brier Score: BS = ( 1/n ) Σ ( p i – o i ) 2 – Common accuracy measure of prob fcs – o i is binary (0 or 1) – Analogous to MSE in probability space – A quadratic scoring rule Sensitive to large forecast errors .
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