Figure 04: The chart above shows an estimate of cumulative net cash flows post CAPEX of tight oil from Bakken (ND) as of January 2009 and as of May 2013 (red area and rh scale) and estimated monthly net cash flows post CAPEX (black columns and lh scale). The assumptions for the chart are WTI oil price (realized price), average well costs starting at $8 Million in January 2009 and growing to $10 Million as of January 2011 and $9 Million as of January 2013. All costs assumed incurred as the wells were reported starting to flow (this creates some backlog for cumulative costs as costs in reality are incurred continuously as the wells are manufactured) and  the estimates do not include costs for completed non- flowing and dry wells. Economic assumptions; royalties of 15%, production tax of 5%, an extraction tax of 6.5%, OPEX at $4/Bbl, transport (from wellhead to refinery) $12/Bbl and interest of 5% on debt (before any corporate tax effects). Estimates do not include any effects of hedging, dividend payouts, retained earnings and income from natural gas/NGPL sales (which now and on average grosses around $3/Bbl). Estimates do not include investments in processing/transport facilities and other externalities like road upkeep etc. The purpose with the estimates presented in the chart is to get an approximation of net cash flows and development of total debt used.
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