22 Extended range forecasts at MeteoSwiss – user experience and probabilistic verification ECMWF Forecast Products User Meeting, ECMWF, Reading, UK, 14-16 June 2006 Andreas Weigel C N W 1/3 2/3 1 d 1,Cl d 2,Cl Ensemble prediction system: RPS = d 2 1,EPS + d 2 2,EPS Climatologic forecast: RPS Cl = d 2 1,Cl + d 2 2,Cl Example: Three equiprobable categories (e.g.
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