Table 2.4  A Closer Look at the Assumptions Behind Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWRs)    Assumption Changing the Assumption Causes SWRs to be… 1 U.S. historical data is sufficiently representative Lower 2 Investors earn index returns: no fees or underperformance Lower 3 Financial portfolio is tax-deferred Lower 4 No desire to leave a bequest or safety margin Lower 5 Planning horizon for 4% rule is 30 years Could go either way 6 Retirees always spend a constant inflation-adjusted amount Higher 7 Only a few asset classes are available Higher 8 Retirees do not adjust withdrawals based on market returns Higher 9 Retirees maintain a fixed asset allocation throughout retirement Higher 10 Goal of retirement is to minimize failure probabilities Higher
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