Wolff: Organisation und Kriminalität 2006 Competing Hypotheses To offset the risks accompanying analysts' inevitable recourse to mirror-imaging, Heuer
{"Image DocumentName": "Wolff: Organisation und Kriminalit\u00e4t 2006", "Image ImageDescription": "Competing Hypotheses. To offset the risks accompanying analysts inevitable recourse to mirror-imaging, Heuer suggests looking upon analysts calculations about foreign beliefs and behavior as hypotheses to be challenged. Alternative hypotheses need to be carefully considered--especially those that cannot be disproved on the basis of available information. Heuer s concept of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) is among his most important contributions to the development of an intelligence analysis methodology. At the core of ACH is the notion of competition among a series of plausible hypotheses to see which ones survive a gauntlet of testing for compatibility with available information. The surviving hypotheses--those that have not been disproved--are subjected to further testing. ACH, Heuer concedes, will not always yield the right answer. But it can help analysts overcome the cognitive limitations discussed in his book. Some analysts who use ACH follow Heuer s full eight-step methodology. More often, they employ some elements of ACH--especially the use of available information to challenge the hypotheses that the analyst favors the most. Heuer s advice to Agency leaders, managers, and analysts is pointed: To ensure sustained improvement in assessing complex issues, analysis must be treated as more than a substantive and organizational process. Attention also must be paid to techniques and tools for coping with the inherent limitations on analysts mental machinery. He urges that Agency leaders take steps to: Wolff: Organisation und Kriminalit\u00e4t 2006.", "Image XResolution": "37", "Image YResolution": "37", "Image ResolutionUnit": "Pixels/Centimeter", "Image Software": "SlidePlayer", "Image YCbCrPositioning": "Centered"}